January Jobs Report: Unemployment Rate Up to 7.9 Percent, 157,000 Jobs Added in January

Workers lay streetcar track on Loyola Avenue in New Orleans, in this Nov. 8, 2012 photo. (Gerald Herbert/AP Photo)

 

 ABC NEWS

By SUSANNA KIM (@skimm)

Feb. 1, 2013

The U.S. economy added 157,000 jobs in January, as the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 7.9 percent from 7.8 percent, according to data from the Labor Department.

“This jobs figure today indicates that the engine of the economy  is revving, but the car isn’t going anywhere,” said Tom di Galoma, managing director with financial services firm, Navigate Advisors LLC.

Employment numbers for November were revised higher to 247,000 from 161,000. For December, they were also revised higher to 196,000 from 155,000.

“The uncertainty will be around what happens with government jobs, because the uncertain impact of the fiscal cliff in December may have led to some layoffs in January,” said Kevin Dunning, global economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. “Even though it was ultimately resolved on Jan. 1, some federal government workers may have been laid off.”

Still, “it looks like hiring has been quite resilient despite all the fiscal uncertainty, and so our expectation is that employment continued to climb in January,” he said.

“But it may be a bit diminished because we’ve had quite a strong trend for the last six months, and we’ve always expected that the fiscal tightening will weigh on the economy in early 2013. So, our thought will be that there will be slightly slower job growth than we got used to in the second half of 2012.”

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report, for the week ending Jan. 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 368,000, an increase of 38,000 from the previous week’s unrevised figure of 330,000. The four-week moving average was 352,000, an increase of 250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 351,750.

Stephen Bronars, a senior economist with Welch Consulting in Washington D.C. cautions people not to “overreact” to January’s jobs report.

“Careful observers examine the size of the seasonal adjustment. January is a very difficult month for the BLS to forecast,” he said.

Typically, payroll falls by 2.8 million between December and January because of seasonal workers’ leaving jobs after the holidays, he said. But a report released Thursday by payroll provider ADP noted that private-sector employment increased by 192,000 for January 2013, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

This report, which does not include government or public jobs data, noted that goods-producing employment increased by 15,000 jobs in January, primarily fueled by a 15,000 increase in construction jobs. Manufacturing jobs, however, were down by 3,000.

Service jobs, including restaurant workers, health care workers, housekeepers, teachers and retail sales positions, increased by 177,000, with professional/business services adding 40,000 jobs for the month. the ADP report said. Trade/transportation/utilities added 33,000 jobs, and financial services added 12,000 jobs.

Businesses with 49 or fewer employees added 115,000 jobs in January, according to the ADP report. Employment levels among medium-size companies, that is, those with 50 to 499 employees, rose by 79,000, while employment at companies with 500 or more employees fell by 2,000.

Carlos A. Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP, said in a statement that private sector employers created an average of 183,000 new jobs per month during the past three months, “an encouraging sign of steady improvement in the job market.”

Economist Bronars noted that in January 2012, nonfarm payroll grew by 275,000 after seasonal adjustment (even though unadjusted payroll declined by 2.67 million), the biggest single month gain in the past 30 months.

“Even though jobs are being created, people who gave up searching for work are coming back into the labor force and will be counted as unemployed until they find work,” Bronars said.

ABC News’ Abby Ellin contributed to this report.

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How To Invest For Jobs Coming Back To U.S.

Brian Sozzi, Contributor   2/16/2012

The grand theme I want to put on the table is the concept of onshoring, sometimes called reshoring, which is the bringing back of U.S. jobs from overseas supply chains.

U.S. businesses have started to realize that while workers in far away lands garner miniscule wages compared to their U.S. counterparts, having operations outside of the country can be a strategic disadvantage.  The speed and structure in which information is consumed has caused U.S. consumers to demand top quality products and to want to buy them whenever they please.

Having a manufacturing plant domestically aids in the quicker movement of goods from design table to sales floor.  Furniture maker Ethan Allen is great example of a manufacturer producing most of its products in the U.S. and doing customization for clients, setting itself apart from price-point focused competitors.

Corporate managers are simply getting over their infatuation with cheap international labor and analyzing the total costs of doing business in the U.S. compared to say, China or India.

There is a dollop of icing on the cake here as well.  The topic of focusing on onshoring to boost employment levels seems to be an area of agreement between bickering Republicans and Democrats.  Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum, for example, wants to zero out the U.S. corporate tax for manufacturers.

Anytime the major political parties agree on anything, even the slight thing, it’s cause to sit up and take notice from an investment standpoint.  The Donkeys and Elephants may be a little apart on how to precisely shepherd along the corporate onshoring interest, but at least they are talking the same language.  It’s high time they do find common ground if the following is to be reversed:

• Manufacturing employment has fallen by approximately 37% since 1980.
• According to a survey done by the Manufacturing Institute and Deloitte, some 600,000 manufacturing jobs are currently unfilled due to a mismatch between job requirements and experience.

I have read a fair number of columns bantering about onshoring.  Is it overhyped?  Do we really need more jobs in the service sector U.S. economy?  The debates are almost endless.  Unfortunately, though, I have failed to stumble upon investment strategies to profit from onshoring, which has already begun to a certain extent, and could likely gain steam in the years ahead.

Buy-and-hold investors, this should be right in your wheelhouse: a highly probable future event to build positions around in companies with durable competitive advantages.

A few names that come to mind:

• Waste Management: Owns 260 plus landfills and is the largest waste management business in the U.S.  More manufacturing production means more waste to be piled into the company’s green bins.

• ADP: Benefits in two manners.  First, workers are hired to run new domestic manufacturing plants (hopefully by people that used the downturn to attain new technological skills).  Second, there should be a trickle down effect in the overall employment sector via a ramp in higher paying manufacturing jobs.

• Dunkin Brands: “America Runs on Dunkin” as the brand’s slogan goes.  The company’s moat is not as wide as an ADP or Waste Management, but more U.S. manufacturers should mean more egg sandwiches (which Starbucks does not do superbly) and coffee.  Store penetration is increasing in areas of the country that are manufacturing oriented.